When Alan Keating sits at the poker table, you can expect fireworks and excitement, and nothing was different this time when he bluff-catched against Nik Airball on the river for $525,000 and won the pot of $1,600,000. But let’s get to the breakdown and see how both players played the hand before Keating used magic to find the call.
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Preflop Breakdown
The hand was played a month ago on Hustler Casino Live stream. The game was No-Limit Hold ’em, and the limits were $500-$1,000 + $2,000 BB Ante. The hand started by Airball opening to $6,000 with 6♦5♦ from LJ. Only Keating called in BB with 8♥4♣.
If this was a normal game, Keating would have odds to defend almost ATC (any two cards) as he has to pay $5,000 to play for the pot of $16,500, which would give him pot odds of around 30 percent. He would have 33 percent equity with the lowest part of his defending range and 32 percent equity with 8♥4♣. The problem with the call is that Keating still has a player behind him to act in the UGT|S (straddle)Oh position, but luckily for him, he folds.
Flop Breakdown
The board came 4♦8♣3♦, and it’s a banger for both players, but Keating was ahead with 56 percent of equity while Airball still had plenty with 44 percent. Keating correctly checked, but he can also lead this flop as the board suits his range, and Airball will have a tough time playing against the lead with a significant portion of his range. After Keating’s check, Airball fired a c-bet of $5,000 just to get raised by Keating to $35,000, and Airball called. The pot was $86,500.
There’s not much to break down here, as everything was played standardly; maybe Airball’s c-bet sizing was wrong, as he should be polarized on this board, so big sizing or checking is the right option, but this isn’t a huge mistake.
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Turn Breakdown
The turn came 3♥, which is not good for any player’s hand, but Keating continued with a bet of $60,000 to face a huge re-raise by Airball, who raised to $230,000, and Keating called. The pot was $546,500.
Keating’s c-bet was good even tho the 3♥ on the turn is not a great card as he was beaten by all the overpairs of Airball, but also puts the pressure on draws and floats of Airball. The raise from the Airball was a mistake as once the board paired, he could no longer draw to the nuts (he has two outs to straight-flush nuts), but that was very unlikely to happen. He could have just called and kept Keating’s bluffs and middle hands in and tried to hit the draw and get paid by those hands on the river. He is also risking getting shoved on by Keating, who can have 3x, 8x, overpair (99, TT, JJ) and be forced to fold his 29 percent of equity.
River Breakdown
The river came A♠, which is a good card for Airball; Keating checks, and Airball pulls the trigger and goes for a $525,000 bet, which is slightly below pot size. The problem with this bluff is that he is blocking plenty of hands. Keating was supposed to fold like 65o, 6♦7♦, A♦5♦, A♦6♦, 6♦5♦. Using missed draws as bluffs is never good. Also, bluff catching with hands that block opponents’ potential bluffs is not good, especially when a player is indifferent. But considering the mistake Airball made on the turn by re-raising, he is representing an extremely strong hand like a full-house, straight or trips, and maybe he is committed to bluffing this river.
After thinking for a bit, Keating tried to get some info from Airball, but Airball didn’t say anything. Keating managed to make the call in the end, which seems correct, as there are plenty of missed draws on the board, Airball doesn’t have many 3x hands, and the previous action suggests he doesn’t have Ax in his hands besides A♣3♣. Keating was even saying, “I feel like you are bluffing; nothing makes sense.”
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