In poker cash games, “Run It Twice” is the gentleman’s agreement that splits an all‑in pot into two separate board runouts. It’s meant to take the sting out of bad beats – but here’s the twist: it subtly helps hands like A‑K more than your beloved pocket pair.
Why? It’s all about variance.
When you’re holding a pair – say 88 – against A‑K preflop, you’re the slight favourite (~54%). In a single run, you’ve got one shot to scoop it all. Run it twice, though, and the underdog gets two separate chances to connect. That means more splits and fewer full‑pot wins for you.
For the underdog, that’s gold. Even if they miss the first run, the second one can save half the pot and avoid a total wipeout. Your edge as the favourite stays the same in theory (EV doesn’t change), but in practice, your scoop rate shrinks.
In short: EV is the same for both formats. Variance drops with running it twice, which helps the underdog because it reduces the chance of a total bust and increases the frequency of half-pot salvages. The favourite’s scoop probability decreases significantly when running it twice.
- Read more: Mastering Variance in Poker: The Pro’s Playbook for Surviving and Thriving Through the Swings
- Read more: The Right Way to Study GTO Ranges: Stop Memorising, Start Understanding
The Preflop Matchup: 88 vs A‑K
Let’s take a closer look at this classic all-in confrontation: pocket pair versus the “Big Slick”.
Preflop equity:
- 88 ≈ 54% favourite
- A‑K ≈ 46% underdog
If we run the board once, the favourite has a single shot at winning the entire pot. If the cards fall their way, great – a full scoop. If not, zero return. For the underdog, it’s win everything or lose everything.
The Run-Twice Effect: More Shots for the Underdog
When you run it twice, you’re effectively playing two separate mini-games. The pot is split evenly into two halves, and each board determines the winner of its half.
That means:
- The favourite needs to win both runs to scoop the entire pot.
- The underdog only needs to win one run to salvage half the pot.
Even if the underdog loses the first run, they still have a fresh chance to hit the second run. This drastically cuts the frequency of their total busts.
Variance: The Real Driver
Here’s the key:
- EV stays the same. Whether you run it once or twice, the math says the same long-term result for both players.
- Variance changes. The swings are smoother when running twice, and smoothing variance inherently benefits the underdog more than the favourite.
Why? Because the underdog’s biggest risk is losing everything in one flip. Two separate chances reduce that risk.
The Scoop Rate Shrinkage
In a single-run scenario:
- The favourite scoops the full pot roughly 54% of the time.
- The underdog scoops about 46% of the time.
When running twice:
- The favourite’s scoop rate drops sharply because now they must win both boards.
- The underdog’s frequency of salvaging at least half the pot jumps dramatically.
The result: more chopped pots, fewer full scoops for the favourite.
